Betting tips / Mathew Thompson / 26 September 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Dominic Beirne has a favourite for the upcoming Cox Plate, and urges you to hang onto your hat...well, 'Helmet'...if you want to back a winner.

Darley colt Helmet has a mortgage on the Caulfield Guineas and should be favourite for the Cox Plate, returning the highest rating ever recorded in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude.

That's the opinion of Betfair's highly-respected Spring Racing form analyst Dominic Beirne, who rates Helmet's victory in Saturday's Guineas Prelude at Caulfield as clearly the best performance by a three-year-old this season.

Beirne, the man credited for revolutionising bookmaking and form analysis in Australia in the 1980s, believes that on the current figures if the Cox Plate were tomorrow Helmet would be 4-1 favourite. (Although he has it on good authority from the stable that Helmet would have to win the Guineas to start in the Cox Plate.)

And, on paper, this 2011 renewal is the weakest Cox Plate for years, with this crop of three-year-old's outstanding.

Betfair punters currently have New Zealander Jimmy Choux at the head of Cox Plate betting at $7.40, with Helmet now into second favourite at $10 from $22 before the weekend.

Whobegotyou ($11), Sincero and Lion Tamer (both $13) complete the top five in the market.

According to Beirne's race-time ratings, Helmet's Guineas Prelude victory was 4.5 points better than Sepoy's victory in the Danehill Stakes and Smart Missile's Run to the Roses triumph. The performance was also comfortably the best of the season to date based on weights.

Perhaps influenced by his blistering closing sectionals in the Rupert Clarke Stakes, Betfair punters have left Smart Missile at the head of Guineas betting at $3.40, ahead of Helmet at $3.70.

Dominic Beirne disagrees with the marketplace, and is instead of the belief that were Guineas run tomorrow the public market would look unlike that offered today, and something more like Helmet @ $2.70, Smart Missile @ $3.40, $6 for Manawanui, $8 for Moment of Change and $15 for Chase the Rainbow.

Dominic Beirne's detailed form analysis, including speed maps, key statistics, evaluations of each runner and recommendations is available each Friday, so tune in again at Betting at Betfair then to get just about the best analysis on offer.