Betting tips / Ben Caudell / 24 November 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

As the ATP Tour Final approaches, Ben Caudell drags out the stats and offers up his betting nouse to help you pick a winner or two ahead of the semi-finals.

Reasons to Back Tsonga -2.5 Games @ [1.98] (Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Rafael Nadal - 20:00 Match)

•Jo Wilfried Tsonga has a great record against left handers, winning seven of his last eight; The French number one has tasted success against Thursday's opponent on two occasions, Queens 2011 and Australian Open 2008.

•Tsonga, who took Federer to a decider and defeated Mardy Fish in straight sets, will be confident in the knowledge that Nadal is struggling to find any kind form at this year's end of series finale, especially after the 2011 French Open champion was totally outplayed against Federer, losing 6-3 6-0. Prior to this he laboured through in three sets against the ailing Fish 6-2 3-6 7-6.

•Rafael Nadal has lost four of his last five matches when priced as an underdog ([2.00] - [3.00])

•With two indoor tournament wins in 2011 (Vienna and Metz) it is not surprising to see Tsonga with superior indoor stats than Nadal, who has so far completed only four matches on this surface all year.

•The Frenchman has won 78% of his indoor matches within the last twelve months, Nadal has won 71%, Tsonga has recorded better stats on serve, with 70.7% of service points won and 89% of service holds, the Spaniard is 65% and 81% respectively.

*5 Reason to Back Federer - 4.5 Games @ [1.70] (Roger Federer v Mardy Fish - 14:00 Match)

•According to some rumours circulating the O2 arena, Mardy Fish could withdraw from his match against Federer. If the American does decide to play on Thursday, there's a strong chance that he will not be fully fit and in all likelihood will be blown off the court by the impressive Swiss.

•Federer has a good chance of winning the World Tour Finals for the sixth time in his career. If he remains undefeated all tournament,t he becomes $1.63m richer and possibly world number three. Fish is already eliminated and therefore has nothing to really play for.

•Federer holds a 6-1 head series lead over the American, with their only indoor match taking place in Madrid 2004, which the Fed Express won 6-3 7-6.

•The former world number one has won seventeen in a row when priced as a heavy favourite ([1.20] or shorter), eighteen in a row on indoor hard and eleven of his last twelve in Great Britain.

•Fish has lost seven of his last eight on indoor hard, four in a row against top tenner's and five of his last six when priced as a heavy underdog ([6.00] or bigger)