Betting tips / Andrew Atherley / 19 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Andrew Atherley has looked over the stats, and while they bode well for Newcastle against Fulham, the aren't looking so good for Arsenal's match against Man United.

Many commentators continue to question how long Alan Pardew's team can remain in the upper reaches of the Premier League table and the latest 'evidence' for the case against Newcastle is that they will suffer while Demba Ba and Cheick Tiote are on duty at the Africa Cup of Nations.

Well, that hasn't happened yet because Newcastle have won both games against Premier League opposition without Ba and Tiote.

The markets, however, remain unconvinced.

Newcastle are [23.0] for a top-four finish even though they are level on points with Arsenal, who are [3.45] in that market, and a point ahead of Liverpool ([3.85]). Champions League qualification might be a stretch for Newcastle, but Pardew is right to target a place in Europe. A top-six finish for Newcastle, which can be backed at [4.5], does not look out of reach.

More significantly, Newcastle's match odds have not moved into line with this season's form, which has put them on a par with Arsenal and Liverpool. Away to Fulham on Saturday, the visitors are [4.1] to back despite being 13 points better off than the hosts in the table.

Newcastle have strong stats in their favour. They have the fifth-best points average against teams outside the big six, with just two defeats out of 14 in that category, and more specifically have won eight out of 11 (with just one defeat) against bottom-half sides -- Newcastle rank third in the Premier League in that category.

The Cottagers, meanwhile, have won just five out of 21 overall this season and rank 11th on home form this season. Newcastle's away record against bottom-half teams is won three, drawn two and lost none, while they have lost only one out of seven away to teams outside the big six.

All in all, the stats indicate Newcastle are overpriced and will be hard to beat, making them a solid bet at [1.87] off +0.5 on the Asian handicap at least.

Arsenal's decline as a trophy-winning force is evident in any number of statistics and one of them -- their reduced ability to beat the other elite teams -- is a significant factor going into Sunday's home showdown with Manchester United.

Revenge might be in the air for Arsenal after their 8-2 thrashing at Old Trafford in August, but the stats suggest victory will be hard to come by and that, at the very least, United have a good chance of rewarding backers at [1.86] off -0 on the Asian handicap.

In recent seasons the Gunners have had the lowest home win rate in elite matches as well as the highest defeat rate -- both are 33.3 per cent from an even split of six wins, six draws and six defeats in that category since the start of the 2007-08 season.

The season before that, 2006-07, was the last in which Arsenal won a majority of home games against what was at that time the big four and has now expanded into the big six. By contrast, the other five members of the big six have had at least two seasons when they have been majority home winners.

That doesn't rule out victory for Arsenal on Sunday, but in general Arsene Wenger's team are struggling to beat the other elite sides, as demonstrated by their record of one win and four defeats in big-six clashes this season.

Their only home match in that category so far resulted in a 2-0 defeat by Liverpool, albeit after Emmanuel Frimpong had been sent off for the Gunners with the score at 0-0.

Pick of the Stats
Wolves v Aston Villa
Villa are the only Premier League team still unbeaten on the road against sides outside the top three - they have won two and drawn six in that category
Bolton v Liverpool
Only one of Bolton's 11 games against top-half opposition has had under 2.5 goals

Recommended Bets
Newcastle off +0.5 on Asian handicap v Fulham at [1.87]
Manchester United off -0 on Asian handicap v Arsenal at [1.86]
Bolton v Liverpool over 2.5 goals at [1.94]