Betting tips / Matthew Walton / 18 December 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Defying the odds, some of the big guns have been ejected from the Champions League, something Matthew Walton sees as an opportunity for Arsenal to run with and push deep into the finals.

There are now just seven previous winners left in the competition...and Benfica last won the trophy in 1962, Marseille in 1993. Hardly super-powers of the modern game.

That leaves Bayern Munich (2001), Real Madrid (2002), Milan (2007), Inter (2010) and Barcelona (2011) as the only recent Euro champions still standing after the group stages.

Admittedly, the likes of Chelsea (2008), Arsenal (2006) and Bayer Leverkusen (2002) have all made the final in the not too distant past.

But for a change (and a refreshing one at that) the group stages of this year's Champions League have provided some real drama, excitement and genuine surprise.
We lost Manchester United, Porto, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax and Valencia... all past winners and/or finalists. Another major power, albeit an emerging one, Manchester City, similarly failed to progress.

Put those six teams in the draw instead of your Zenits and Basels, Napolis and Apoels... then you'd have some bona fide Box Office ties in the R16.

Instead we've got a few match-ups which would barely raise an eyebrow, even in the Europa League!.

Yes, but...

It cuts both ways.

And as backers we should look to take advantage of this unfamiliar looking draw.

See what angles there are to exploit.

And there definitely are some.

The drawing together of Zenit and Benfica, Lyon and Apoel... possibly Napoli and Chelsea and even Marseille and Inter means we could have some 'unfashionable' sides making it into the Quarter-Finals. Conceivably, they could make up 50% of the last eight!

And to play devil's advocate for a moment...suppose Zenit, Apoel, Napoli and Marseille all go through and are then drawn together in two, bracketed QFs. The winners of each subsequent tie would meet in the SFs and we'd be guaranteed a real minnow in the final.

It could happen.

We could well see such a lop-sided draw as the competition progresses.

But conversely we could also see one or two of the bigger clubs benefit from this occurrence. Instead of playing Barca or Bayern, they could just as easily meet Basel or Benfica.

Yes, we might see some small fry make the latter stages, but we could see a real big fish get a dream draw all the way to Munich.

In this respect, the winner of the Arsenal/Milan tie could be such a beneficiary. The Gunners are [8.8] to reach the May 12th showpiece, Milan are [11.0]. The equally streetwise and seasoned Inter [12.5] might also fit this kind of profile.

For sure the likes of Barca, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich head the market, and deservedly so, but the forthcoming QF draw could easily pit any two against each other, and so on.

There seems a sense that this year's competition, already full of surprises, has a few more shocks left to deliver.

The same could equally be said about the Europa League. But maybe that's not just because of the R32 draw which has just taken place. No. Even despite the presence of some powerful participants in Manchester City and United, Valencia and Porto, this competition has a rich history of these kind of clubs failing to 'see out the trip'.

Whereas the quirk of the draw might have produced an opening in the Champions League... it's definitely a 'quirk of the tournament' that explains why often well-fancied teams fail to justify prominent market positions.

Granted, teams relegated from the 'main event' in recent seasons have enjoyed success on the under card...Braga (finalist 2011), Atletico Madrid (winner 2010), Shakhtar and Werder Bremen (winner/finalist 2009), but previous Champions League experience, statistically speaking, is no guarantee of Europa League success.

As a result, we genuinely have two competitions of real interest. Something to look forward to next year...and, more importantly, something to profit from!

Key Statistic

In the current format (i.e. since 2003/04) the number of big clubs in the R16 from Spain, England, Germany and Italy has never been as low as this season. It's just nine in 2011/12 whereas in every previous year the number has been at least 11 or 12 (out of 16). The representation of 'lesser countries' has never been so high.

Recommended Bets

Dutch Arsenal [8.8] & Milan [11.0] to reach the final = [4.88]
Back Inter [12.5] to make the final
Lay Manchester City & United in the 'to reach the final' market