Betting tips / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 October 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

This famous Spanish layout is one of the ultimate tests in golf and only a certain type of player should succeed on its tight and testing fairways and greens. Paul Krishnamurty picks the best bets out of the first day's three-balls.

Back Peter Hanson 4u @ [2.4] (vs Quiros, Fisher) (Starts 08.50)
A long history of hosting the Euro money list decider, the occasional Ryder Cup and nowadays the Andalucia Masters, means that Valderrama is one course where form students may have a significant edge. The demands of this extremely tough layout are well-known. Without long-game accuracy and a confident touch on and around the greens, players may as well forget it.

Valderrama has repeatedly bruised the biggest of reputations, and there's no reason to think this year will be any different. Take home favourite Alvaro Quiros, who lives locally and would normally be a popular pick for any event in Spain. Classy though he may be elsewhere, Alvaro's long game is surely too wild for this layout, and that has proven the case on both previous attempts here.

In stark contrast, the reliably accurate Peter Hanson has looked tailor-made for Valderrama ever since finishing fourth on his course debut in 2004, when nowhere near the regular contender he is nowadays. Surprisingly Hanson hasn't matched that performance since, though he has made a couple of top-15s. Coming off the back of three straight top-11s, built upon relentlessly hitting greens in regulation, the Swede rates a likely candidate this week, and a worthy favourite for this three-ball. The third man, Ross Fisher, has a fair Valderrama record but has been struggling with the flat stick all year. That tends to prove very costly here, on greens that may well be the toughest in professional golf.

Back David Howell 3u @ [2.9] (vs Lawrie, Dougherty) (Starts 10.05)
This group doesn't look like it will take much winning, especially as it contains one extremely weak candidate. Apart from one ordinary 45th place, Nick Dougherty has missed every cut this season, and never had much of a record here during the good times. Peter Lawrie deserves favouritism as easily the best of this trio, but has never taken to Valderrama before, owning a best finish from four attempts of just 39th.

It may be worth taking a chance, therefore, on an old hand better known nowadays for his regular stints in the commentary box. David Howell hasn't done much since contending for the Irish Open in July, but retains enough talent and class around the greens to put a competitive round together. Back in his heyday, Howell enjoyed this test, twice finishing fifth in the elite Volvo Masters.

Back Sergio Garcia 5u @ [2.1] (vs Rose, Molinari) (Starts 11.40)
After one of the all-time great European Tour performances, the question for golf punters' is whether the perennially frustrating, much maligned genius known as Sergio Garcia is genuinely back to his best. Personally, I retain serious doubts. Last week's heroics came on a course he's known inside-out since childhood, cheered on by family and friends. If his fragile temperament was going to stand up in any event, the Castello Masters was it. Whether it would elsewhere, such as in a major, is quite another matter.

Nevertheless Sergio should be full of confidence right now, tends to start tournaments better than he finishes them, and has a superb Valderrama record. In ten tries, he's been runner-up three times and only once missed the top-ten. That is overwhelmingly superior compared to both of tomorrow's opponents, especially Francesco Molinari, whose best result from four is 17th. Justin Rose has stronger claims as a former Volvo Masters champ, but last week's missed cut on one of his favourite US courses was a disaster.

Back Thomas Aiken 4u @ [2.4] (Edfors, Jacquelin) (Starts 12.00)
Finally, another solid favourite, against two players expected to struggle this week. Thomas Aiken is in fine form, registering top-fives on two of his last three events, and played pretty well for 18th on last year's course debut. The reigning Spanish Open champion has produced most of his best form, (outside his South African homeland), in Southern Europe. Of his two opponents, Raphael Jacquelin boasts the better course record, but has been struggling with the putter lately and hasn't made a top-30 anywhere since June. Johan Edfors has better recent form credentials, but this ultra-attacking, often wayward character really doesn't look the type for Valderrama.