Betting tips / Will Hamer / 14 January 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Will Hamer predicts the favourite for 'Best Comedy/Musical' will get rolled in Sunday's Golden Globes.

There is a widely-held belief that voters for the Golden Globes love musicals and superstars.

It must explain why Rob Marshall's star-filled musical Nine is trading in the red, at $1.70 or so, to win the Globe for 'Best Musical/Comedy'.

Surely the film itself doesn't warrant such a skinny quote?!

It's taken a battering from the critics, can't get a bum on a cinema seat and has seen only a drip or two of love from the acting, producing or directing guilds. It's friendless, except it seems with punters.

Before I briefly assess its competitors (which is hardly a great list, but let's set that aside for now), I'd like to offer up the theory that 'Globes folk' are musical lovers.

In 2001, the award went to Moulin Rouge. In winning, it beat such cinema, ahem, greats as Shrek, Bridget Jones's Diary and the criminally bland, Legally Blonde. Moulin Rouge was a legitimate contender for 'Best Picture'.

In 2003, Chicago won 'Best Musical/Comedy'. No favouritism there as it also took home the Oscar for 'Best Picture'.

The Johnny Cash biopic Walk the Line won two years later against a field that included a movie called The Squid and the Whale, which, I am not ashamed to say, I had never even heard of until now.

Yes, Sweeney Todd's win in 2007 was a surprise, but at least it had the critics behind it...unlike Nine.

And, if the Globes voters did love musicals, surely last year they would have given preferential treatment to Mamma Mia!, which ended up losing to Vicky Cristina Barcelona?

What about Nine's stars?

Daniel Day-Lewis, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Nicole Kidman, Marion Cotillard, Kate Hudson and Sophia Loren.

Admittedly, a stellar line-up, and it's my belief that the Globes only like nominating the stars. It ensures they attend their little party, but it's not like they are compelled to give them a win.

So, if you're like me, and think these theories are bunk, then happily lay Nine at anything up to $2.50.

However, I am inclined to also take (500) Days of Summer for the win.

It's had across-the-board great reviews, a nomination for its star and a wonderfully unique take on the tired-old formula for a boy-meets-girl movie.

Of the others, Julie & Julia should win Meryl Streep the 'Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical' gong, but while her performance stood out, the half of the movie that didn't feature her was fairly run-of-the-mill.

It's Complicated, the roughie of the field, is another with so-so reviews. It's not hopeless as a chance, especially in a wide field, but it would be a surprise.

This leaves us with The Hangover, the most successful comedy of all time.

Surely, they wouldn't...would they?