Betting tips / John Harms / 27 January 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Trading on the tennis majors presents a rare opportunity for Betfair punters to line up an easy set of green numbers, writes John Harms.

Tennis is never over until it is over. At 4-0 up in the 79th minute Arsenal is home. At 0-2, 2-4 down, Nadal can still fight back. And there is no time constraint.

They happen four times a year. And they are brilliant. The four Grand Slams of tennis.

Whether you like Andy Roddick and his audition for a leading role in Animal House II; whether you like Serena William's and the study of physics and engineering; whether you like watching Roger Federer in slow motion with Beethoven's fourth symphony or Status Quo playing loudly on your surround sound; whether you like the futile fox-terrier determination of Lleyton Hewitt; whether you like thinking about Marcos Baghdatis, his family sitting among the whitewashed homes in the village in Cyprus fondling their worry beads; whether you like forehands and drop volleys and kick serves and Hawk-eye. Doesn't matter. You don't have to like them. Because when it comes to the punt, there is no better market to bet on than tennis.

One ordinary everyday garden variety game of tennis is three months of Wall Street and the ASX jammed into two hours. Better still, a top game of tennis, fought keenly and tightly between two competitors of similar ability, is the stock market of the last 150 years jammed into three hours. It is boom and bust, and wildly fluctuatibg prices. That is how volatile the market of a single tennis match (and of markets affected by that single tennis match - say, the tournament winner market) is.

This is why punting on tennis with Betfair is so, so good.

Consider it.

Consider Roger Federer's first round match against Igor Andreev the other afternoon. Federer was about a $1-nothing to win on the match betting. And at the start of that match he was about $3.95 to win the tournament.

He started sluggishly and was in a bit of trouble in the first set. He also looked to have a bit of a Christmas tummy. Quickly his price for the tournament went out to $4.10 and $4.20. When he dropped his serve he blew to $4.60. When the first set went to Andreev he got beyond $5. In fact quite a bit was traded at $5.50 and a sprinkling of dollars at $5.70. Had you held your nerve, waited for the dust to settle, and the great player to find his rhythm, there was a tidy profit to be made. He got on top, and won the match. He has won subsequently and is now $3.75 to win the tournament.

Had Andreev been able to sustain his challenge and the match fluctuated further the possibilities for trading would have continued. As they have done in numerous other matches. In one of his matches Juan Martin del Potro traded between $10.50 and $25, until he finally won, and now is $13.50 as he goes into the third round. That's a lot of margin to play with.

The key is to be patient and hold your nerve. And you can be caught out. Those of us who have traded on Federer during his glory have done pretty well, laying early in the knowledge that $1.64 to win a tournament is not great value and is likely to still be $1.60 by the quarters. We have waited until that moment - which always comes - when he is break point down, and then a set down, and then 15-40 down when the price is suddenly out to $2.90 before going BANG. And having a lovely book.

Although last year I didn't hold my nerve. Having been too tempted by the huicy-ish odds on offer and banged too hard, I got in a little deep when under-estimating Thomas Berdych. Berdych dominated Federer on a Sunday afternoon winning two sets and controlling the third. Federer was gone. I laid at $8 just to cut some losses. Those of faith took my $8. Federer fought back, won that one, and the astute punters were in an even better position. I suddenly had an all red book.

The brilliant shot-making under pressure and the tension created by a close match can make tennis so engaging. But it's the punt that will grab you these days. In long matches players have periods of brilliance and domination and then their opponent rallies. It's so consistent.

Also, the scoring system is so conducive to comebacks, and fluctuations. Tennis is never over until it is over. At 4-0 up in the 79th minute Arsenal is home. At 0-2, 2-4 down, Nadal can still fight back. And there is no time constraint.

I choose the tournament winner's markets (men's and women's) because you can trade on-line while matches are in progress. Of course trading on the match result is just as attractive if you want to use the phone service.

This year I have traded on Federer and Nadal (who was for a while into $5.40 and is now back to $6). I'm in a strong position.

This year I'm not going to stuff it up.