Basketball / Andy Morris / 02 March 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The South Dragons are on course for the NBL title, despite having to work harder than the Melbourne Tigers in their semi-final series, writes Andy Morris.

The ladder tells no lies after a 30-round season - the South Dragons have been the outstanding team this term.

Leaders for much of the season, they finished with a record of 22-8, two wins better than the Tigers, with a points percentage four better than their Grand Final opponents.

The two teams go into this best-of-three series boasting identical 9-6 away records, but when two of the games are going to be at Hisense Arena and the Dragons own a 13-2 home record then you've got to favour them.

They had won four of their last five regular season games going into the semi-final series against the Crocodiles, and in the end comfortably overcame the Townsville side in three games.

Possibly you could read something into the fact that they were beaten in game two in Townsville, whereas the Tigers won their series 2-0 against the Breakers, but I'm not sure that will have much weight.

All you need do in the Grand Final if you're the No. 1 team is win your two home games, and I believe firmly that the Dragons will do so.

South took considerable heart from their win over the Tigers in the first meeting of the sides in October, when they won 108-80 at Hisense Arena, when Joe Ingles scored 26 points and picked up nine boards.

And in one of the key matches of the regular season they produced an amazing second-half fightback to beat the Tigers 107-98 at the State Netball and Hockey Centre. They had trailed by as many as 19 points in the third term but skipper Mark Worthington - with a game-high 24 points - helped them storm back to win.

The third meeting, back at the Tigers' home court in late January, was a must-win for the home team and they duly won a close one 92-86, completing their seventh win in a row and their first against the Dragons in nearly a year.

They can take some heart from that, and certainly this Grand Final is the most even it could possibly have been - the best two teams in the league, without a doubt.

I have admired South coach Brian Goorjian all season, he has run his team professionally and they are a tight-knit group of whom it could be said the whole is more than the sum of its parts.

They have a great fighting spirit, and I think even if the Tigers come out and take the lead in game one they can come back and win that match.

I am backing South in game one, but expect the Tigers to hold their own on their home court in game two.

Although that means it will come down to a game three decider, I can't see South slipping up at Hisense Arena where their fans get right behind them and they dominate teams.

So, for me, it will be a South win in three this time.