Basketball / Andy Morris / 02 March 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

It's possible to make money by laying the league-leading Cleveland Cavaliers at home, argues Andy Morris.

Let me start by making it clear Cleveland will win the game. That is almost a no-brainer as the visiting New York Knicks are like rabbit staring into car headlights when they come face to face with LeBron James.

However, the handicap is 11.5 points and I think the Knicks will be good enough to hold the Cavs to a single-figure victory at Quicken Loans Arena.

It's less than a month since these teams last met, at the same venue, when James set a franchise record with 35 points in the first half. He also became the first player for 36 years to have at least 47 points, eight assists, eight rebounds and five steals.

And yet, even then, the Knicks were able to keep them to a seven-point victory, as Nate Robinson weighed in with 26 points and David Lee added 20.

In that match, the Cavs saw Shaquille O'Neal tally 19 points, while this time around he is sidelined with a sprained thumb, giving me even more confidence that the handicap is too high.

Cleveland has the Indian sign over New York - they have won the last seven meetings - and they go into this one owning the league's best record (46-14).

James tortures the Knicks whenever he faces them - he is averaging 35.4 points, 7.9 assists, 7.1 rebounds and 3.1 steals during those seven victories, but Anderson Varejao, who comes in for Shaq, is a downgrade. He's averaging 13.0 points and 8.3 rebounds over the last three games.

The Knicks have a 20-38 record going to Cleveland, and are only 8-18 on the road. They continue to give game time to Tracy McGrady, but he is not putting up the numbers, averaging just 8.1 points and 1.8 rebounds per game. They'll have to rely on Lee having a big night (he leads the team with a 20.4 PPG average and is the NBA's top scoring center) to keep Cleveland close.

I believe that with O'Neal out, the Cavs will settle for just chalking up another W and are not set for a blowout this time.

Lay Cleveland in the New York +11.5 points market.