AFL / John Harms / 27 May 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now

John Harms offers some AFL premiership betting pearls of wisdom...

Friday night on a crisp Canberra evening.

Greeting-card sunset.

Chill in the air.

The High Court and the National Library looking US-grand behind the autumn reds and yellows of the trees across the Burley-Griffin's lake.

In Melbourne, people bustle. A sense of happy urgency prevails. They are invoking their footy plans (which I've been cc-ed into all week, much to my frustration) for what is to be one of the games of the season so far: Geelong and Collingwood at the MCG.

Friends (of mine, and each other) meet at the Windsor and other watering holes. They dive in to Maroondah Highway fish and chip shops en route to their dormitory homes. What did we do before mobile phones? ("How many potato cakes should I get?")

In Canberra, the true believers know what a real sports night it is; a real footy night. And they have plans. Like nineteenth century missionaries in Istanbul.

Only I wish Canberra was Istanbul.

A bloke has popped in to Manning Clark House to say he's off to Ainslie Footy Club, another group of mates is going to Eastlake. The Canberra Cats have organised a gathering to cheer the boys on (many have made the trip to Melbourne).

I'm watching it in front of the fire.

I spend the footy season mucking around with the Betfair AFL premiership market. It's busy enough that your bets will be matched if you are patient.

(Over $1 million has been traded so far!)

I have been laying Western Bulldogs and (especially) Collingwood.

Geelong is backed in the hours before the game and get into $3.65. But so is Collingwood, and at one point during the opening quarter, when the ball follows Ben Johnson around like he's Peter Featherby and the Pies show they will be competitive throughout (and possibly win), you can lay them at $3.65 as well. I look for every remaining dollar available. I even check under the couch cushions.

The Pies premiership price doesn't change in the opening minutes. They kick the first goal in no time. They could win.

It's hard to read from the TV but it looks like neither side can penetrate centre half forward and a stalemate exists.

But still the Pies price sits there, just under $4.

I don't understand it. They just don't look too flash on paper, but they keep winning. It seems that famous Friday night a couple of years ago just can't be erased from the footy memory.

I prefer to recall last year's Preliminary Final, a slaughter which surely violated a number of the Geneva Conventions.

The AFL rub their hands together. For about the fourth time this season already, they have a top-of-the-ladder, one v two fixture.

And the MCG looks chockers.

This is what Melbourne is about.

There's about the same amount of room on the paddock. Neither side seems willing to commit numbers forward. A goal each. It's dour, but intriguing. And this will probably suit Collingwood, in the way 0-0 at the 85 minute-mark suits Bury against their Manchester neighbours (in recent times at least).

How will the game be broken open?

Johnno: give us something.

G. Ablett?

Didak?

Kelly gets plenty of it, but turns it over. Hawkins roams like a Labrador off the leash. The Cats sneak away with a couple of goals.

Mark Blake does a terrific job in the ruck. He wins the hit-outs, and around the ground he grows secure in the knowledge that no one opponent will come near him. He shows the ball and Pies run away. His faking creates Red-Sea paths, the likes of which I haven't seen since mid-career Michael Jordan.

As the Cats look like they'll go into half-time with a handy (but unconvincing break), Dayne Beams lands a couple of goals. The first comes from a Josh Hunt moment. The defender makes up ground to spoil brilliantly and then botches his clearance, which turns into an 'un-clearance', and Beams scores.

The fluctuations are lovely. While the Cats are on top, they are in to $3.40, with the Pies out to $4.10 (if you wanted to cash in). As the lads eat Snakes and banana sandwiches in the sheds, the Pies move in to $3.85 again.

Collingwood come out strongly and lead. But somewhere along the way, Bomber Thompson's power of observation tells him that the Pies aren't so good-just desperate and determined, and very Collingwood. So some license is given and the Cats run freely for a while.

Travis Varcoe is superb, demanding the footy. In the past he has left you with the distinct impression that he thought others had the right to the Sherrin, and that his lot was to tackle and block and shepherd. But since returning from injury he has looked a more mature player. Quick. And creative. He and Stokes play important roles in this match.

The usual suspects perform well for the Cats, although a special mention should go to James Podsiadly and Cameron Mooney. Both give the Cats the sort of structure that has served them so well over the past three seasons. A couple of the Cats end-to-end goals had a bit of the 2007 Grand Final about them.

Bomber wins the tactical battle on the night. His use of Matthew Scarlett, who is allowed numerous uncontested possessions, is important at times.

But it is a general all-round performance, which sets things straight again.

By game's end, the Cats are $3.15 for the flag, and the Pies $4.50.

By night's end, the Cats are $3.05 and the Pies are momentarily $5.50.

They have settled at about $5.30 this week.

Australian bookmakers have purchased European vehicles on the back of a few local entities: Greg Norman in majors, Chief de Beers at Eagle Farm, and the Pies to win the flag.

To me the Collingwood Football Club is perennially under the odds, which is why we should all have a Betfair account.

I just hope no-one takes any notice and Pie fans just keep taking the price on offer.