AFL / John Harms / 22 February 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

John Harms dissects AFL premiership betting, offering some pointers for 2010.

There are many things for which to thank the Founding Fathers.

Australian footy's Founding Fathers, that is.

When those six blokes sat around a table in Jerry Bryant's pub on Wellington Parade in East Melbourne on that day in May in1859, not only did they agree on a set of rules which would evolve into a sensational game, they also established a code that was going to be very good for the punt.

Although it is not as good as tennis (which is ideal, and I keep raving about, despite losing my nerve with Federer again - thankyou Davydenko), where matches fluctuate all over the joint, footy is pretty good. In individual matches, teams come in and out of the game, giving rise to solid in-play punting opportunities.

However, the better market, if you are patient, and your shiraz-pickled mind remains clear, is the AFL premiership market. And, in fact, you can effectively bet on individual matches within the premiership market, because the market is volatile enough to react to individual results, and even trends within matches.

A survey of the past few years of AFL premiership betting is cause for punting salivation. The fluctuations have been huge.

While the 2009 premiers (Go Cats) were pretty solid throughout betting, from around $3.60 pre-season into about $3.00 after winning the NAB Cup, and short (along with St Kilda) through mid-season, they did drift to $4.50 in the late rounds while they were resting players, and there was doubt (and speculation) about the general health and well-being of their list.

The mid-season media discourse, as ridiculous as it was, had suggested the season should be scrapped and that the two unbeaten teams Geelong and St Kilda should just play a best-of-five grand final series.

Old punters knew better than that.

And those with Betfair accounts knew that right then was the perfect moment to start backing the roughies. Some backed either Adelaide or Brisbane at triple figure odds.

These prices were also inflated by a misplaced faith that Hawthorn would come back, and so the Hawks hung on at single figure odds for far longer than they should have.

The other factor which assisted enormously was the rally of the Pies.

Having started poorly, drifting to around $30 (and beyond), they strung together a series of wins which had them into $3.60 (remarkably, momentarily favourites late in the home and away season.)There are a lot of people who have straightened their kids' teeth laying Collingwood over the past decade. (Which may explain why Collingwood kids have dodgy teeth - someone was taking their bets).

The following, in final ladder order, shows the odds which at some point during the season were available:

Geelong $4.50 - late in the home and away season
St Kilda $20.00 - early season
Western Bulldogs $24.00 - mid-season: there was a cluster of teams mid-table
Collingwood $65.00 - early, after a poor start
Adelaide $300.00 - when they were twelfth and looked in strife
Brisbane $220.00 - early when they were out of the eight
Carlton $110.00
Essendon $440.00
Hawthorn $170.00 - they were still a chance to make the eight late
The rest $1000.00 - some of these teams, like Port Adelaide remained chance to finish in the eight until the final rounds, and $5 at $1000 isn't a huge burden.

So, if you'd backed St Kilda and Collingwood early, laid Hawthorn early, backed Adelaide, Brisbane and the Doggies mid-season, you would have had a pretty packet to have a crack at the Cats.

This year looks just as volatile.

Probably more volatile.

You can't read too much into the NAB Cup, but it will yield a couple of clues. They're for you to work out.

The draw is also a key: in most seasons over the past decade, six of the sides in the top eight after Round 7 go on to play in the finals, so it's worth having a look at the opening rounds.

There is usually an 'improver'. West Coast look over the odds at $75. Although they won't win the flag, this should give some interesting trading opportunities. However, they may lose their first round match, in which case it might be better to wait until after that. They're a good chance to do some damage in the first two months of the season.

At the moment the market is pretty much as expected. Collingwood may be a touch over the odds at $12.50, given they finished in the top 4 last year, and at last have a ruckman, but they play the Doggies in Round 1.

The beauty of focusing on this market is that it is low risk, for potentially high return. Remembering, too, that September becomes wildly fluctuating because you can adjust your market on-line, in-play, for this market, in all matches, except the Grand Final.

By which time you'll have a black book (or is that colour green?)

Rest assured, some of those bets sitting there waiting to be taken are mine.