Blues bid to bounce back
AFL Ladder 
/ Andy Morris / 03 September 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now
Carlton need to find some form in their Elimination Final against Brisbane, after having the stuffing knocked out of them last weekend, writes Andy Morris.
The Blues slipped to seventh on the ladder with a disappointing 72-point loss to Adelaide, meaning they have had just a few days to pick themselves up off the floor and prepare to take on a Brisbane team that has run into form.
Brisbane beat Port Adelaide and Sydney to round off the season in high spirits, but they had no luck with injuries.
While Carlton escaped injury-free from their meeting with the Crows, the Lions added to their injury list with the likes of Simon Black and Josh Drummond picking up knocks. They also have doubts over influential Daniel Bradshaw and Daniel Merrett.
Brendan Fevola has booted 13 goals in two games against Brisbane this season, and could be the key again here.
Brisbane won the last meeting of the two sides, by just six points back in round 11, and will hope that the Blues' lack of finals experience - they have not made September since 2001 - will count in their favour.
This looks like being a close one, but the Lions' injuries could hurt them and if Fevola has a good game the Blues should prevail. Back Carlton in match odds betting.
In the other Elimination Final, Adelaide take good form into their meeting with Essendon.
The Crows have won three in a row against Hawthorn, West Coast and Carlton. However, they have had an easy run-in on paper and seven of their last eight victories were earned against teams that didn't make the finals.
Adelaide beat the Bombers by 16 points in round 11 at Etihad Stadium, so should be capable of repeating that at AAMI Stadium as Essendon is struggling with injuries.
They are without the likes of Matthew Lloyd, Paddy Ryder and Sam Lonergan, while several others are facing fitness checks.
The Bombers are undermanned, but have had reasonable form of late and won't be overawed by the occasion.
Brent Stanton was instrumental in last week's win over the Hawks, collecting 31 disposals and eight tackles, while Michael Hurley kicked four goals and is sure to be a key figure for them again.
But it's Adelaide who should take this one by a comfortable margin, especially since they've beaten the Bombers 10 times in the last 14 meetings on this ground, so take them in match odds betting.
The Western Bulldogs will have genuine belief that they can overcome Geelong in the Qualifying Final at the MCG.
They beat the Cats by 14 points in round 21 at Etihad Stadium, and finished the home-and-away season strongly. Besides beating Geelong, they overcame Brisbane and Collingwood in the last three rounds.
The Bulldogs will also fancy their chances with an almost-fit squad, while several Cats face fitness tests and Paul Chapman, who has a hamstring problem, would be a major absentee if he can't make it.
Geelong has beaten the Bulldogs seven times to two in finals, and is coming off a season where they have established a record by winning 18 or more games in three successive years. They beat Fremantle by 40 points last week and will go into this one in good heart.
The Cats are experienced in finals footy, but they have not been at their best recently and are ripe for an upset. They could be missing too many key man, while the Bulldogs are hitting top form just at the right time and could be a good selection in match odds betting.
St Kilda thrashed Collingwood by 88 points at Etihad Stadium in round 7, but their latest meeting will be a lot closer.
They have five finals victories over the Pies, who have beaten them three times, and they overcame a mini-slump in form last week when they beat Melbourne to end the home-and-away season in convincing fashion.
Collingwood might have been more people's fancies in this one if they had been able to beat the Western Bulldogs last round, but they lost by four goals and dropped to fourth on the ladder.
Neither team is hit too hard by injuries, so two full-strength teams will clash in what should be quite a tight game.
The Saints have had an excellent season, which should not be marred by their back-to-back losses to Essendon and North Melbourne, and they finished five games clear of the Magpies in the final standings.
The Saints go into September as favourites, and should merit that tag in this one so back them in match odds betting.
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