AFL Grand Final / Jake Norton / 18 March 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

With the hit and giggle of the NAB Cup and NAB Challenge behind them, AFL clubs now take a fortnight to compose themselves for the real stuff beginning on March 24, providing Jake Norton with a nice little opportunity to take a look at the movers and shakers in Betfair's 2011 AFL season markets.

Who is fancied, if any, to topple the all-conquering Pies?

Should the freshmen Suns be resigned to propping up the ladder in their maiden campaign?

Can Dane Swan finally vindicate punter support and poll sufficiently to win the Brownlow?

Premiers 2011
For a club to be just $3.05 to win the premiership in a 17-team competition and before a ball has even been kicked in anger is remarkable.

To give you a comparison, the NRL's Dragons - nominally equally emphatic 2010 champions as Collingwood, and subsequent World Club Challenge winners - are a substantially longer $5.60 to go back-to back this year.

With this in mind, consecutive Magpie premierships appear a foregone conclusion. But of course, much can change in six months.

If indeed the 'Pies are to be toppled this season, then the attitude of punters is that the toppling can only realistically come from Hawthorn ($7.80 to back in Betfair's Premiership market) and St Kilda ($8), and perhaps the Bulldogs ($10) and Geelong ($11).

It's little wonder that Victoria is a $1.06 favourite in the 'Winning Region' market on Betfair. (Fremantle leads 'Top Non-Vic Team' betting at $2.88.)

Wooden Spoon
The AFL's poisoned chalice has been the subject of plenty of pre-season activity to date in 2011. Much of this has to do with the presence of the new Gold Coast franchise, early faves at $2.42 to finish their first tilt in 17th position.

Interestingly, the second elect in this market is the Suns' cross-state rival, the Brisbane Lions, at $4.30. Former superstar player Michael Voss has failed to convince in his role as coach, with many of his strategies to date backfiring tragically. Layers did turn the Lions in as low as $2.90 at one point, which thankfully for the Lions has steadied.

Of the non-Queensland clubs, only West Coast ($6.40), Richmond and Port Adelaide (both $8) are considered true wooden spoon chances by Betfair punters.

Brownlow Medal
Blazing hot favourite entering the 2010 count, Dane Swan is again top Brownlow Medal fancy in 2011 at a fairly skinny $8.60.

It's difficult to see Swan - or his club, Collingwood, for that matter - improving on such a smashing season, so at under $10, we'd be happy to lay (or oppose) the tattooed one here.

As usual, 2010 winner Chris Judd is also prominent in punters' vision at $11.50, while Joel Selwood is clearly expected to enjoy the limelight vacated by former Cat team-mate Gary Ablett. Selwood is $12.50 in Betfair's Brownlow market, which looks as good a bet as any among the favoured lot.

Speaking of Ablett, the 2009 medallist is firm at $18.50 to collect a second 'Chas'. In a team that might struggle, it's difficult to see him polling sufficiently to win, indicating that laying Ablett at that price may well be the correct option.

Coleman Medal
The hype around Hawthorn and its superstar Lance "Buddy" Franklin has been palpable in the off-season.

So much so that Franklin has accounted for half of all money invested on the 2011 Coleman Medal on Betfair. He's a hot $4.80 favourite to emulate his outstanding 2008 season.

Incumbent medallist Jack Riewoldt shares the second line with Barry Hall at $7.50, but in reality, should Franklin enjoy an injury-free season, there is a strong argument to suggest that he is the superior forward in the competition.