AFL preview: Round 7
AFL Fixture 
/ Nick Tedeschi / 04 May 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now
The Western Bulldogs should have too much class for the Swans, particularly if they can shut down Adam Goodes.
Your weekly hot tips for the current round of the AFL.
Western Bulldogs (v Sydney)
1.5 units at match odds of $1.62 or better
The Bulldogs have limped through 2011. They opened up with a shock loss to Essendon, were unimpressive in wins against Gold Coast and Brisbane, and then blew a lead against Fremantle and allowed Collingwood to scoot clear late. In their three losses, they have been kept to 11 goals or less.
Maybe luckily for them, however, they meet a Swans team officially in a rut. Sydney have lost two games either side of their bye and will be without key midfielder Kieren Jack for the next six weeks. The Dogs have won six of seven against Sydney, including three straight at Manuka.
The Western Bulldogs should have too much class for the Swans, particularly if they can shut down Adam Goodes.
Geelong (v North Melbourne)
3 units over 24.5 at margin odds of $1.16 or better
Geelong have won 24 straight at Skilled Stadium and 30 of 31 over the last four years at their home ground. They have won six straight against North Melbourne, including three straight at home against the Roos, with North Melbourne not getting within 33 points in those matches.
The Roos have struggled with their fundamentals this year, something that will be dreadfully exposed by a classy Cats team on a windy day at the Cattery.
This looks like a big win for Geelong.
Richmond (v Fremantle)
2.5 units at match odds of $2.05 or better
The Tigers have really snuck under the radar this year, improving more dramatically than expected. After a horror opening draw, they came home strong against both North Melbourne and Brisbane thanks to the brilliance of midfielders Dustin Martin, Nathan Foley and Trent Cotchin.
The numbers in this match-up stack up well for the Tigers: Richmond have won four of their last five against Fremantle, they haven't lost to Freo outside of Subiaco since 2004 and Freo have lost seven straight at the MCG dating back to 2007.
With the Dockers coming off a bye and with a growing injury toll, all signs point to Richmond here.
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