AFL / Cliff Bingham / 14 June 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Although he is backing in the Kangaroos to turn around their form slump when they meet the Suns in this weekend's AFL match-up, Cliff Bingham does so with not too much confidence...

Gold Coast (v NORTH MELBOURNE)
0.5 units to win by over 36.5 points @ Betfair odds of (1.90) or better

The Gold Coast Suns have gone from one disaster to the next over recent weeks and the trend is unlikely to change this week when they host North Melbourne.

The Suns have been abysmal in recent weeks, failing to score more than 70 points in any game since their Round Seven match against Fremantle. Unsurprisingly, their average losing margin across the five subsequent games is greater than 10 goals.

The Kangaroos haven't been a picture of consistency either, winning only one of their past five matches and being on the receiving end of a 115-point hiding from Hawthorn before their bye week.

Last year North Melbourne won the corresponding match by 59 points, while they also defeated the Suns by 34 points in Round Five of this season.

I'm going with the superior team/ fresh legs combination to win well in this match, but with limited confidence.


HAWTHORN v (Brisbane)
One unit to win by over 48.5 points @ Betfair odds of (1.90) or better

Hawthorn may have an opportunity to jump into the top four (at least temporarily) if they can win by a handsome margin against Brisbane at home this weekend.

The Hawks' Round Nine loss to Richmond may have been an aberration - they've won the five matches either side of that loss by an average margin of 64 points, winning all five matches at the line.

The Lions were terrific in upsetting West Coast at home before their bye but their form away from the Gabba is more troubling - since they start of the 2011 season, they've recorded only two wins to go with 12 losses outside of Queensland.

Hawthorn have had by far the better of the recent head-to-head battles, with a 2009 win at Aurora Stadium the sole moment of recent joy for the Lions. The two teams have only met twice at the MCG since 2005 (the most recent such match occurring in 2007), with Hawthorn prevailing comfortably on both occasions.

The Hawks are looking ominous - this score line could get extremely lopsided.


Western Bulldogs v (PORT ADELAIDE)
One unit to win with 16.5 points start <@ Betfair odds of (1.90) or better

The Western Bulldogs will look to rebound from a very disappointing loss in their last match when they host Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium.

The Bulldogs looked to be playing pretty solid football (four wins and two respectable losses to Collingwood and Geelong in a six-week span) prior to their 92-point drubbing at the hands of the Swans a fortnight ago.

The Power have been decidedly better in 2012 than they were last year but are still well short of being a finals-calibre team. While their away record this season looks poor on paper (their only win coming against the Suns), they have put in very honest performances against both Essendon and Collingwood at Etihad this year.

The Bulldogs have won five straight against the Power, although only one of these matches was played in Melbourne (the Bulldogs winning by 20 points in 2007).

I think these two teams have comparable ability and don't believe that home state advantage is worth almost three goals, so I will take the visitors with the start.