AFL / Cliff Bingham / 29 March 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now

In his weekly AFL preview, Cliff Bingham likes the look of an Adelaide Crows side rejuvenated with both a new coach and NAB Cup Final win

ADELAIDE (v Gold Coast)
Three units at match odds of $1.30 or better

The Crows looked terrific under new coach Brenton Sanderson during the NAB Cup and I expect them to keep the early season momentum rolling here.

While the Gold Coast won three games in their inaugural season, they also lost 15 games by 30 points or more, including 10 losses by at least 60 points. They simply can't be expected to challenge potential top-eight teams on a week-to-week basis just yet.

Last year these teams met on two occasions, with the Crows winning by 57 points at home in Round 8 and by 61 points at Metricon Stadium in Round 22.

The Suns may have the best player on the field, but the depth of talent provided by the likes of Scott Thompson, Bernie Vince, Nathan Van Berlo, Ben Rutten, Kurt Tippett and Jason Porplyzia should see the Crows prove far too strong.

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GEELONG (v Fremantle)
1.5 units at match odds of $1.80 or better
The market for this match looks to be priced on potential rather than proven performance, and therefore I think an opportunity exists to bet on the reigning premiers.

Fremantle lost their last six matches of 2011 by an average margin of 58 points, though major injury concerns were more to blame than a major lapse in form. Nonetheless, their form across the first half of last year was still well short of that displayed by Geelong.

The Dockers' list is full of talented young players, but the likes of Ballantyne, Fyfe, Lower, Morabito, Barlow and Mzungu have all played less than 50 senior games. Compare this to the Cats and their multiple-premiership winning core of Selwood, Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Scarlett, Enright and company.

Geelong has won five of the last six matches they have played against the Dockers at Patersons Stadium. However, the last two such matches have resulted in a 7-point win to Fremantle in 2010 and an 11-point win to the Cats last year, so the very recent history suggests a close match.

Class will prevail in the end with Geelong representing nice value as only slight favourites in this market.

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WEST COAST (V Western Bulldogs)
One unit at match odds of $1.70 or better
Brendan McCartney's senior coaching debut comes against an opponent who last season won all of their 14 matches against sides that missed the finals.

That doesn't bode well for the Bulldogs, who lost 11 of 12 matches against top-eight sides last season. The Doggies scope for improvement in 2012 may also be limited by comparison with other teams as they have nine players with 150+ senior games already (Ryan Griffen is likely to join the group by May), but only seven who have played between 20 and 100 matches.

The Eagles' success begins with the Cox-Naitanui combination dominating the ruck. The likes of Glass, Embley, Hurn and Kerr add experience and poise, while Shuey, Darling, Kennedy and Masten show plenty of potential.

West Coast have won seven of their last nine matches against the Bulldogs, including three of the last four played at Etihad Stadium. Last year the Eagles raced out to a big lead in the corresponding match, only for the Bulldogs to make a late charge, but ultimately fall eight points short.

Home ground advantage gives the Bulldogs a shot at an upset, but once again class should prevail.

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ST KILDA (v Port Adelaide)
0.5 units at match odds of $1.50 or better
The statistics make it all but impossible to tip Port Adelaide with any confidence.

They failed to beat a top-eight side all of last season, lost their last nine matches at AAMI Stadium by an average of 53 points and were lucky to avoid the wooden spoon.

The Saints have their own concerns. Given their squad includes 10 players with over 160 senior games, 18 players with over 80 senior games but only six players between 20 and 80 games, it's difficult to see where any upswing in 2012 can come from. Their ruck division looks light on for depth and Lenny Hayes may take a while to reach his peak again after a knee reconstruction.

Head to head, Port Adelaide have lost four of their last five matches against St Kilda (with the last two losses coming by an average margin of 75 points), including two out of three played at AAMI Stadium. Their last meeting at this venue was in Round 16 of last season, with the Saints cruising to a 56-point victory.

I think St Kilda will get the four points, but with some concerns about whether this is the year they slide out of the finals, I'm not as confident as for the other matches.
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