AFL / Cliff Bingham / 07 June 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Cliff Bingham can't help but join the bandwagon and believes he will witness yet another win in the Tigers renaissance in this weekend's round of the AFL.

RICHMOND (v Fremantle)
Two units to win by over 30.5 points @ Betfair odds of $1.90 or better

Richmond have asserted themselves as a genuine finals contender in 2012 and will be looking to maintain the current strong momentum against Fremantle.

The Tigers have done a tremendous job to win five games already, despite an extremely tough early season draw - their five losses have come against sides with a combined record of 36-14, while their latest three wins have come against sides with a combined record of 18-12.

The last six weeks have been a much tougher time for the Dockers, with their last three matches resulting in two emphatic losses and a more respectable (albeit still 29-point-at-home) loss last week to the Crows.

Perhaps of greatest concern for Fremantle will be their recent record at the MCG - they've lost their last 10 matches at the ground by an average of 42 points, as well as their last three against Richmond at the ground by an average of 35 points.

If you're betting on the Dockers this week, you are essentially hoping that the wall can hold against a superior team with greater momentum and a substantial home ground advantage.

I can't see it happening, so will be stepping into the favourites with some confidence.


Gold Coast v (ST KILDA)
0.5 units to win by over 45.5 points start @ Betfair odds of $1.90 or better

The Gold Coast Suns are still searching for their first win of the season and the task doesn't get any easier this week when they take on a St Kilda side desperately trying to keep pace with the top eight.

Early in the season there were some very promising signs for the Suns against both Essendon and Fremantle at home, but the last months seems to have extinguished that spark. Their losses to GWS and Port Adelaide (by eight goals at home, no less) must have been particularly bitter pills to swallow.

The Saints look to have turned over a new, more attacking leaf in 2012 - they have scored an average of 102 points per game and posted only one total of less than 80 so far this year.

Last year the Saints won the corresponding game by 20 points, while they thumped the Suns by 92 points in Round 2 of this season at Etihad.

Gold Coast look terrible at the moment, while St Kilda need a percentage boost wherever they can find one from - I can't see them taking their foot off the accelerator here, thus the scoreboard could get ugly.



Port Adelaide v (HAWTHORN)
One unit to win by 1-39 points @ Betfair odds of $2.30 or better

Hawthorn made very short work of North Melbourne last week in Tasmania, but a potentially tougher test lies in wait when they travel to AAMI Stadium to take on a Port Adelaide side who have won three straight games.

The Power have improved significantly in 2012, with much of their increased intensity translating into their defensive statistics. They are conceding less than 90 points per game on average (comparable to both St Kilda and Richmond) and have conceded 100 points only three times thus far in 2012 (to Essendon, Sydney and Adelaide).

The Hawks have been enigmatic in 2012 - their last six weeks have led to four wins and two losses, with not a single result decided by less than 35 points. They either belt sides or get belted of late. They have won three of the last four overall between the clubs, but only one of three between the teams at AAMI Stadium over the past four seasons.

I think Hawthorn are travelling well enough to get the four competition points, but the Power are resolute enough to prevent this game from becoming a blowout: a 1-39 margin bet looks like the way to go.