AFL / Cliff Bingham / 30 June 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Cliff Bingham believes the surprise win on the road to Essendon last week will be more than enough impetus to have them run the Western Bulldogs ragged in this weekend's AFL match-up.

ADELAIDE (v Richmond)
2 units to win by over 16.5 points @ Betfair odds of (1.90) or better

Adelaide were very disappointing last week against the Kangaroos and will be looking to reassert their top four credentials at home against Richmond.

The Crows looked to be well off the pace last Sunday, but it is worth remembering that they rebounded from a convincing loss to Hawthorn by stringing together five-straight wins. At home in particular, they remain a formidable opponent.

The Tigers came back to earth in their final two games before the bye, losing at home to Fremantle and barely squeezing by GWS. Given their form in the month prior to this, the lapse would be of some concern.

Richmond have won the last two against Adelaide (including the corresponding game at AAMI Stadium last year), but the Crows have won three of the last four between these teams played at this ground. Overall, Richmond have won in only nine of their 28 appearances at AAMI Stadium.

The Crows are still a superior side to the Tigers and with the aid of a significant home field advantage can be backed to win against the handicap.

ESSENDON (v Western Bulldogs)
One unit to win by over 29.5 points @ Betfair odds of (1.90) or better

Essendon return home full of confidence after a strong (and rare) win over in Perth to take on a Western Bulldogs team who were blitzed at home last weekend by Brisbane.

Aside from a real slump against Melbourne, the Bombers have been very strong in 2012 to date: 9-3 overall (with no losses by more than a kick), including a 4-1 record at Etihad Stadium.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs' 2012 record against sides currently in the eight makes for much more sobering reading: zero wins, six losses, average of 64 points scored and 108 conceded.

Essendon have won three of the last four between these teams, including wins by 49 and 55 points in the two matches at Etihad last year.

The Bombers are on song this season and clearly had the wood on the Dogs last year - I see no reason to expect a change in the trend.


(Sydney v) GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
0.5 units to win with 66.5 point start @ Betfair odds of (1.90) or better

Sydney look set to secure a tenth win of the season and consolidate their top four position when they take on Greater Western Sydney in a rematch of the opening round.

The Swans have been very good at taking care of business against the lower-placed sides - they've won all four games played to date this season against sides with five or less wins, with three of those wins coming by over 10 goals.

The Giants have been competitive for significant patches of many games this year, but the fact remains they've lost seven of their 12 games to date by over 10 goals (though only three games by over 70 points), and are conceding 60 points more than they are scoring on average

The Swans won by 63 points in the opening round of the season, and I'm anticipating a comparable result here.

However, Sydney will have bigger fish to fry later in the year, whereas I think the Giants will work hard all match and thus have a slight lean to them at the handicap.


(St Kilda v) NORTH MELBOURNE
One unit to win with 18.5 point start @ Betfair odds of (1.90) or better

The battle for top-eight spots will be on in earnest when St Kilda take on North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium.

The Saints are a quintessential mid-tier team. They are 6-6 on the season, which splits out into a 4-1 record against teams with less than six wins, 1-3 record against teams with seven or more wins and 1-2 record against other teams sharing their win-loss record.

The Kangaroos have arrived at the same record, but in a very different fashion. They started the year strongly, slumped badly for almost two months and then finally surged again when looking terrific against the Crows last Sunday. They are enigmatic, to say the least.

St Kilda have won the last four matches between these teams by an average margin of 41 points, including the two corresponding games last year by nine points (Round 15) and 65 points (Round 23, when a spot in the final eight was still a possibility for North).

I have a pretty good sense as to which St Kilda side will turn up on Sunday, but which North Melbourne side will face them?

If the 'real' Kangaroos show up, the handicap on offer will be quite a generous one - I'm willing to take the points.