AFL / Tony Keen / 11 March 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

In the first of a four part series, Tony Keen rates your club's 2010 AFL Premiership Season chances.

ADELAIDE

One of the form sides in the competition in the second half of last season, Adelaide appeared to be on course for a preliminary final showdown with Geelong when they held a 32-point lead over Collingwood in the second quarter of their semi-final clash, but fell in a heap, eventually going down by five points in dramatic circumstances.

The Crows have had a less than ideal pre-season, losing promising young defender Andy Otten for the year with a knee injury, while midfielder Nathan van Berlo (back), classy forward Jason Porplyzia (pelvis), veteran Brett Burton (knee) and sharpshooter Chris Knights (foot) are all expected to have delayed starts.

Their form has been far from great in the pre-season, losing to Port Adelaide and Collingwood, before recording a narrow win over Melbourne, but I wouldn't take a lot of stock in how they have performed so far. Adelaide is a well-drilled side with a solid defence, and has a good mix of youth and experience in the middle and a multi-pronged attack.

PREDICTION: The Crows will battle out with Collingwood for the last spot in the top four.

BRISBANE LIONS

In Michael Voss's debut season as coach last year, Brisbane made the finals for the first time since 2004, staging a stunning comeback to defeat Carlton by seven points in their elimination final, before being bundled out by the Western Bulldogs.

Voss was very active during trade week, acquiring six new players - the most notable, former Carlton spearhead Brendan Fevola. The Lions have been touted as a top-four contender, but there is going to be a heavy reliance on skipper Jonathan Brown and Fevola to kick them to a winning score each week, as was the case last year when Brown was working in tandem with Daniel Bradshaw.

The lack of a quality small forward, something Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Adelaide and Collingwood all boast, will prove a minor thorn in Brisbane's side.

PREDICTION: The Lions will just miss out on a spot in the top four.

CARLTON

The departure of Fevola may be good for Carlton from a public relations point of view, but there is now a gaping hole to fill in the forward line.

Carlton will be hoping that former Docker Robert Warnock performs well in the ruck as it will free up young gun Matthew Kreuzer to push forward and provide another tall marking option alongside Lachie Henderson, who joined the club as part of the Fevola deal. However, despite his talent, Henderson has only played 15 games, so not too much can be expected of him in terms of goals this season. Jarrad Waite will also most likely spend time up forward in 2010, but is coming off a serious knee injury, and history tells us that players need a full year of football under their belt before they are back at their best. Small forwards Eddie Betts and Chris Yarran have been impressive performers during the pre-season, but Betts has the tendency to be wildly inconsistent, while Yarran is just six games into his career.

The Blues' defence has promise with Michael Jamison, Mark Austin and Paul Bower all likely types, and yet they did look shaky at times during 2009. And, in terms of the midfield, there is no doubt that Carlton has one of the best in the competition with skipper Chris Judd supported by Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy, Richard Hadley, ex-Demon Brock McLean and co.

PREDICTION: Given the serious question marks over the effectiveness of the forward line, and their ability to consistently restrict sides, a second successive finals campaign will be just out of the Blues reach.

COLLINGWOOD

Collingwood made their second preliminary final in three years last year after finishing fourth at the end of the home-and-away season, but once again didn't quite have what it took to get through to a grand final.

They face a tough task to secure the all-important double chance once again, as they will come up against grand finalists Geelong and St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs and bogey side Hawthorn twice in 2010.

However, they are well-equipped this year with a strong defence, statistically the second best in the AFL last year, and a midfield boasting quality players in Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan, rising star Dayne Beams and ex-St Kilda captain Luke Ball, as well as a ruck division consisting of ex-Sydney premiership ruckman Darren Jolly and Josh Fraser.

How well Jolly performs will play a major role in determining Collingwood's success this year, but key forward Travis Cloke is the real key. If Cloke can step up after having a disappointing 2009, the Magpies will be a force to be reckoned with come September.

PREDICTION: Expect Mick Malthouse's Pies to finish either fourth or fifth, with the round 21 clash against Adelaide at the MCG to be crucial.