/ Jake Norton / 06 March 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

I must be mad. The toughest weekend of racing for months and I am tipping a horse at around $8.00 as my best bet of the weekend? Mat, what are you thinking?

Luck favours the brave, as they say.

THE BEST

El Cambio had slightly a disappointing spring campaign, but this is a serious race horse. I don't think he's suited the Melbourne way, but comes back to Randwick where the record reads two starts for a win and a second.

The son of Commands flies first-up, and will be wound up for this.

The presence of champion miler All Silent and the impressive Royal Discretion in the field will ensure the price about El Cambio is good.

Each-way all day. I will be disappointed, and broke, if we don't get something back.

I think this horse will be rated among the best in the country come the spring time.

THE BEST

Thomo, you've done the right thing and gone looking for a bit of value. I've tried doing the same, but every time I look at the form, two names keep popping up in front of me: Theseo and Tuesday Joy.

The fact that punters are prepared to offer black figures about these two, in the Australian Cup and Chipping Norton respectively, baffles me somewhat. I'd be shocked if either was beaten and am happy to more than double my money on either of these class gallopers.


THE VALUE - ROBERT ALLENBY TO WIN HONDA CLASSIC @ $6.60

A great start for the Victorian, who leads by one after the first round with a solid four-under, 66.

This tight layout suits Allenby. At his best the Aussie combines his straight hitting with an excellent his draw shot.

Players readily admit it's very hard to win around this Palm Beach course unless you can hit a consistent draw on the tight, tree lined fairways.

If his mind is in the right state this week, it could be Allenby's tournament. At the very least, take the $6.60 on offer now and look to lay off later in the tournament. He's bound to continue his good form through the second round at least.

THE LAY - NSW WARATAHS V QUEENSLAND REDS @ $1.38

The bitter NSW / QLD rivalry takes centre stage again tonight (Friday) when the Waratahs look to continue an unbeaten start to the season against their bitter rivals the Reds.

The Super 14 is a competition that generally follows the form guide. More often than not though, this match is an exception to the rule.

Queensland's new look might revolve around youth, but Queenslanders young and old all have one thing in common; they all hate NSW on the sporting field.

The Waratahs have been going along nicely, but this is a biggest test than the betting suggests and the Waratahs are to short.

I would be laying them in the expectation that they will get out as the game progresses.

THE DEVIL'S ADVOCATE - BACK THE WARATAHS; NSW vs. QUEENSLAND

Mat, I don't doubt that the Reds are up-and-comers, and I'm very fond of their second- and back-rows. However, the 'Tahs have a quality line-up, have begun the season very well, which I don't expect to cease now.

I'm more than happy to back New South Wales in the match odds. For those that are leaning towards your recommendation, I would suggest that they take a look at the Reds with an 8.5 point head start. Layers currently offer $1.88 on this event's success, which I think is a more appropriate option to laying the 'Tahs straight out.